2009年2月12日星期四

摩根大通(JP Morgan)的全年及第四季業績

趁宏利出業績前,抽少少時間同大家點評下摩根大通早前的2008全年及第四季業績。

1. 摩根大通2008年全年賺56億(美元,下同),比2007年倒退64%或97.6億。
2. 壞帳撥備226億,比去年增加145%或134億。
3. 營運收入增加32億,主要來自利息收入增加,支出持平。
4. 第四季仍錄得利潤7億,比去年同期少76%,但比第三季增加33%。
5. 投資銀行部係出血部門,盈利係負3億,比第三季減少43億,比去年同期少34億,虧損23億,但於投資銀行業內的多個項目保持領先地位。
6. 尚餘126億摃干式貸款問題資產,賬面價值減少57億。
7. 尚餘147億按揭相關資產,第四季減值39億。
8. 不計入華互部分,第四季存款只增加2%,但剩利息收入因息差上升而增加。
9. 第三季開始全面收緊各類貸款標準,令按揭貸款批出的額度減少90%。
10. 個人銀行業務第四季錄得10億利潤,比第三季增加3億,比去年同期增加4.7億。
11. 信用卡業務第四季錄得3.7億虧損,主因為撥備上升。
12. 企業銀行業務第四季錄得4.8億利潤,比第三季增加1.7億,比去年同期增加1.9億。
13. 因為收購影響,財資部第四季錄得利潤5.3億,比第三季增加1.27億,比去年同期增加1.1億。
14. 受環球投資環境轉差影響,資產管理業務利潤比去年同期減少2.7億,剩2.5億。
15. 撥備儲備由2007年的100億大幅增加到2008年的240億,第一級資本比率10.4%,數字包括政府資助金額。

觀乎摩根大通2008全年及第四季業績,除了投資銀行部門因信貸環境轉差而錄得大幅倒退,其他各部門在大幅增加撥備後仍然錄得盈利,部分更有增長。即使計及華互及貝爾斯登的收購,摩根大通2008年的業績仍然穩固。

收購華互為摩根大通帶來大量存款及擴展分行網絡,貝爾斯登的收購則是臨危授命,但因為收購夠低($10一股),在第四季的合併業績中未見到為摩根大通帶來承擔不了的壓力。

摩根大通係少數2008年仍然錄得盈利的美資大行,雖然2009年對摩根大通來說一定係難捱的一年,但同花旗、美銀及富國一樣,大口仔認為摩根大通業績的最壞情況在2008年第四季已經出現,就算不是都離底不遠。如果捱得過2009年,摩根大通於美國的霸主地位將更加穩固。

不過,大口仔最感興趣的,是三數年後回頭一看,究竟現在富國的大肆擴張業務好,還是摩根大通緊縮業務來得理性呢?

8 則留言:

Herman 說...

how abt both win?

GapLo 說...

摩通與富國,前者的網絡較國際化。雖說摩通在緊縮業務,但其緊縮的部份都集中在美國,相對其他地區,特別是亞洲等地,摩通也表示過會積極投放。

若缺齋老人 說...

4. 第四季仍錄得利潤7億,比去年同期少76%,但比第三季增加33%。

E句好關鍵:2009年開首估計是去年第四季既延續(或學你講:稍好),如果第四季都企得穩已經無大礙!

(亦係我話唱衰笨象既大魔顧掂自己先啦!死都係I Bank死先過Com Bank!)

匿名 說...

即時恆生指數, 期指...
www.321square.com

匿名 說...

大口仔...宏利08盈利倒退89%...點睇? >.<
下年係咪好大機會減派息呢? @_@
不過都算好彩...未至於蝕錢...
但第四季真係蝕得好金呀...

Unknown 說...

華互西岸的網絡為摩通帶來好處,摩通能留下多少華互客戶將是一個關鍵.
但合拚的陣痛已展開,不只招牌要改,系統及網上銀行也將融入摩通之內,花費金錢及調校時間後最終是得是失,下一個報告會更清楚

pisces 說...

Here is Quote & a comment by an analyst (who has been bearish since the beginning of 2007):
-----------------------
Once upon a time a Man came to a village. He said to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers knew there was an abundance of monkeys running around in the forest. They started catching them.
The Man bought millions of monkeys at $10. As supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped searching.
The Man announced he would buy monkeys at $100 each. This re-energized the villagers who went back to catching monkeys again. But dwindling supply shrank even more. Villagers left the forest and went back to their farms.
The offer increased to $500 each. But monkeys became so scarce it was impossible to find one, let alone catch it! The Man then said he would buy monkeys at $1,500 each! But, he had to go to the city on some business. So, his Assistant would buy them on his behalf.
In the absence of The Man, the Assistant took them to a huge holding area and told the villagers: "Look at the millions of monkeys The Man has bought from you. If you want to make easy money, I could sell them all back to you at $750. When The Man returns, you can sell them to him for $1,500 each. What a deal! How can you lose? "
The villagers talked among themselves, collected their savings, and bought back the monkeys for $750 billion!!!!!
They never saw The Man or his Assistant again.
They now own a billion monkeys they caught themselves. When they did their sums they discovered they had sold these same monkeys for an average price of $50 and bought them back for $750. But they had no use for them.

Now you have a better understanding of (A) Village Idiots (B) HOW THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HAPPENED AND (C) HOW BAILOUT PLANS ALL OVER THE WORLD WILL WORK !!!!
-------------------------

大口仔 說...

hermanwest:望都咁望....

GapLo:其實大口仔所指的亦是美國本土市場的搏奕,富國在2008年下半年的擴張是豪賭,賭贏左就一躍成為美國本土的NO.2。

若缺齋老人/陳潢:邊個死先唔知,但雙雙渡過最壞時期的可能性不少,時間會證明的。

匿名:在FACEBOOK內提過,宏利第四季蝕錢、蝕幾多唔係重點,最重要係市佔率及點蝕法,簡單一句:唔太差!

Edward:同意!

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