2009年1月29日星期四

賣的悲觀、買的樂觀?



上圖引用蘋果日報羅家聰有關美國樓市的數據走勢圖,羅生在他的文章中點出了一個有趣現象,在美國樓價不斷下跌的情況下,二手樓銷售的年率在2008年中早已"見底回升",一手銷量在2008年底亦有見底跡象。相反,建築批則及新屋動工則維持在非常底的水平。

數據帶出了兩個啟示,在金融海嘯下,美國的建築商(賣家)非常悲觀,在市況未穩定前不敢衝動,但投資者(買家)則相對非常樂觀,在大風大浪下早已悄悄入市。當然,大家可以質疑二手樓銷售被銀主盤主導,但人家都係真金白銀科水買的,銀主盤又如何?

最終係買家定賣家領風騷?三數個月後自有分曉!

5 則留言:

巴林 說...

如果美國樓市見底,相信不少問題都可以解決 !

kelvin 說...

One very interesting point is people in USA who want to refinance their houses need to "buy off" their first initial mortgage in order to enter another mortgage.

Do those buy off count as a house transaction. I know people in general are doing it because alot of people had a fix mortgage of 6% or above previously. Currently is around 4.75.

My current observation: I heard alot of retails store in the malls will close their operation during Macrh and April.
I talked to alot of sales around the stores, this month is crazy quiet which does not happen very often. Stores are giving 30% or more on the Spring items which had never happened before. There are still some 70-80% discount available for winter items.

Edward 說...

Well, notable discount ratio and retail Circuit City close down.
But I really think government don't want the real estate further down. Non-farmer Vacancy drop further that make people more conscious with their spenting. Finicial institution are over-conservative that keep their cash without produce more profit. Economic slow down by psychological fear of unpredictable future issue.

kelvin 說...

Edward

My question is does decrease in housing price slow the economy or the downturn of economy slow down the housing price.

Over consumption has been a problem because Americans use credit to purchase. Eventually, public expenditure will reach to a point where the growth will slow down.

So when you said "Economic slow down by psychological fear of unpredictable future issue" do you mean the banks dont want to lend because of high default risk or fear of their cash position to recover their lost from their CDS, SIV and CDO positions.

大口仔 說...

巴林:好難講幾時見底,等數據話我地知。

kelvin:我相信你所講的數字無會包括在新屋及二手銷售內。

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